I. Deepened Policy Oversight: Extended Regulation Implementation and Global Supply Chain Restructuring
Details of the new policy released by the Ministry of Commerce on October 9 have been further clarified. The "export approval system" to take effect on November 8 will bring metals, alloys, and oxides of five rare earth elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium) under full special licensing management. More crucially, it marks the first implementation of "extended technical supervision" — overseas enterprises using Chinese technology to produce rare earth products must apply to Chinese authorities for export approval. For the high-end chip sector, exports of rare earths required for logic chips of 14nm and below, as well as memory chips with 256 layers and above, will be subject to "case-by-case approval," prompting the global semiconductor industry chain to launch supply contingency plans.
Meanwhile, the United States, in collaboration with Australia, Canada, and other countries, has established the "Minerals Security Partnership" in an attempt to build an alternative supply chain. It has also procured 6 tons of scandium oxide (accounting for one-fifth of global annual consumption) through the Defense Logistics Agency. However, due to long environmental approval cycles and high costs, breaking the current bottleneck remains difficult in the short term. Domestic leading enterprises such as Northern Rare Earth have completed compliance inspections of overseas projects and clarified the boundaries of technology transfer for overseas branches.
II. Upgraded Market Conditions: Record-Breaking Five Consecutive Price Increases Driven by Both Costs and Demand
The price of rare earth concentrates has seen "five consecutive increases" in October. By late October, the average price had surged to 31,500 yuan per ton, a 37.2% jump from the end of the third quarter, marking the largest single-quarter increase since 2020. The price surge is driven by three overlapping factors: In the fourth quarter, production of new energy vehicles rose by 46% year-on-year and wind power installed capacity increased by 42%, driving a 33% year-on-year growth in rare earth demand; China’s fourth-quarter mining quota only rose by 8%, while environmental upgrades at some mining areas led to a 12% production cut, widening the supply gap; prices of extraction chemicals increased by 17% and environmental costs rose by 14%, pushing up corporate production costs.
The price dividend has been passed on to the end market: Four new energy vehicle manufacturers announced plans to raise vehicle prices by 3,500-6,500 yuan starting from January next year, and wind power tariffs may increase slightly by no more than 4%. However, the industry generally expects prices to rise steadily in the first quarter, as planned capacity growth for new energy vehicles and wind power in 2026 will both exceed 40%.
III. Continued Technological Breakthroughs: Mass Production of Ultra-High Performance Magnets and Expanded Application Boundaries
Following technological breakthroughs in Baotou’s rare earth industry, Juxing Permanent Magnet has achieved mass production of its independently developed "ultra-high performance 58SHT magnet." This product has broken the "dual-15 threshold" — at a service temperature of 150°C, its residual magnetism reaches 15.003 kGs, coercivity hits 21.966 kOe, and magnetic energy density is increased by over 15%, which can reduce magnet volume by 20%. The ultra-low rare earth formula and grain boundary diffusion technology it adopts further reduce dependence on heavy rare earths. It has already attracted active engagement from high-end customers in Europe and the United States and will be widely used in new energy vehicles, low-altitude flight, aerospace, and other fields.
IV. New Industry Logic: Technology and Rules Dominate the Competitive Landscape
In the short term, driven by the resonance of policies and demand, the strategic asset attribute of rare earths continues to be strengthened. In the long run, China holds 70% of global rare earth patents and 90% of smelting capacity, coupled with the "resource + technology + rules" triple barrier, making it difficult for the EU and U.S. alternative plans to take effect in the short term. Market focus has shifted from price fluctuations to technology conversion capabilities and compliant supply chain layout, and enterprises with mass production capabilities of high-end materials will continue to seize opportunities.
Oct 30, 2025|
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