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Japan crosses Taiwan red line China's 2026 rare earth countermeasures
 Nov 24, 2025|View:22

Rare earth elements (REEs) have evolved into a strategic geopolitical tool, connecting two major global crises: Sino-Japanese tensions over Taiwan and Ukraine’s peace negotiations. Here’s how these "industrial vitamins" are shaping international power dynamics.



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I. Japan’s Taiwan Remarks: A Rare Earth Wake-Up Call


In November 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s claim that a "Taiwan crisis could trigger Japan’s collective self-defense" sparked fierce Chinese backlash:

  • Beijing submitted the issue to the UN and imposed economic countermeasures.

  • Japan’s 90% reliance on Chinese REEs (especially heavy rare earths like dysprosium) makes it vulnerable. A repeat of 2010’s export halt could cripple its tech and defense industries.

Tokyo is accelerating "de-China" efforts: partnering with France for REE smelting, exploring seabed mining near Minamitorishima, and securing supplies from Kazakhstan/India.


II. Ukraine Talks: Rare Earths as a Bargaining Chip

The U.S.-backed Ukraine peace plan includes a REE deal:

  • America gains rights to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia REE deposits (rich in dysprosium/terbium) in exchange for military aid.

  • Russia is investing $6 billion to build its own REE industry in Siberia, aiming to reduce Chinese dependence.

III. REEs: The Common Strategic Thread

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A. Sino-Japanese REE Dynamics

EventImpact
2010 Diaoyu Islands rowChina’s REE export halt shook Japan’s supply chains.
2025 Chinese REE controlsGlobal markets tightened, pushing Japan to diversify.
2025 Taiwan remarksSino-Japanese tensions rise, REEs become a potential leverage point.

B. U.S.-Ukraine REE Ambitions

Washington’s goal:

  • Control Ukraine’s REEs to weaken China’s supply chain dominance.

  • Secure strategic resources for U.S. tech/defense, reducing Chinese reliance.

Conclusion: REEs – The Silent Geopolitical Driver

From Taiwan to Ukraine, rare earths are the silent force reshaping alliances and conflicts. As nations race to control these critical resources, their mastery will define 21st-century geopolitical supremacy.


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