Rare earths, strategic cornerstones of global high-tech industries, are undergoing seismic market shifts. The suspension of export restrictions has sparked a 15% price jump, with a 5.8% 2026 supply gap, policy tailwinds, and tech breakthroughs fueling speculation: is a 3-year golden period for the industry chain imminent?

I. Policy + Supervision: Fortifying Tight Supply-Demand Balance

1. Export Policy Unlocks Market Demand

On November 7, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs suspended six rare earth export control measures (valid until November 10, 2026). This directly resolves overseas inventory shortages, unleashing massive replenishment demand—analysts predict praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices will rise 10%-15%.

2. MIIT’s Regulatory Overhaul

In October 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) launched the Rare Earth Industry Compliance Supervision Work Plan, mandating full inspections of mining, separation, and processing enterprises. Targeting unlicensed production and over-quota mining, the policy will concentrate capacity in compliant leaders, elevating industry standardization.

3. Key Price Trends (November 2025)

Rare Earth Product Price

Dysprosium Oxide (European CIF)$700-$1000/kg

Terbium Oxide (European CIF)$2000-$4000/kg

Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxides (Domestic)RMB 557,500/ton (up from RMB 500,000/ton)

II. Tech Leaps + Policy Boost: Driving Demand Growth

1. Rare Earth Recycling Breakthroughs

GEM Co., Ltd. recently launched the world’s first "ultra-clean rare earth recycling line," achieving a 95.2% recovery rate—8 percentage points above the industry average. Meanwhile, China Rare Earth’s 15,000-ton/year recycled rare earth project is operational, easing 15% of supply pressure (projected to hit 25% in the future) as a critical supplementary supply source.

2. Downstream Policy Catalysts

New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): In October 2025, global NEV subsidies expanded; the EU’s 2035 fuel car ban has pushed global NEV penetration to 35%, driving surging demand for rare earth permanent magnets in motors.

Robotics: MIIT’s Humanoid Robot Industry Innovation Development Action Plan targets 100,000+ units of mass-produced humanoid robots by 2027, triggering explosive demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets.

III. Industry Chain Opportunities: Short-to-Long-Term Outlook

1. Short-Term (3-6 Months): Policy Dividends

Northern Rare Earth: Controls 70%+ of China’s light rare earth quotas; exports to rise 50%+. H1 2025 net profit: RMB 1.51-1.57 billion (+272.54%-287.34% YoY). A 30,000-ton/year new Baotou plant launches in January 2026.

China Rare Earth: Swung to profit in H1 2025 (net profit: RMB 136-176 million) with widening premiums on scarce medium-heavy rare earth products.

JLMAG: H1 2025 net profit: RMB 515 million (+161.81% YoY); 19.49% gross margin. NEV revenue: RMB 1.675 billion (+28.14% sales volume YoY); Tesla long-term robot magnet supply deal drives RMB 133 million in robotics revenue.

2. Mid-Term (1-2 Years): Concentration + Value Growth

Supply-Demand Gap: 5.8% gap for praseodymium-neodymium oxides in 2025 (112,700 tons supply vs. 119,700 tons demand) and 4.6% in 2026, supporting steady price hikes.

Industry Concentration: NdFeB CR4 to rise from 29% (2024) to 42% (2026) via resource integration.

High-Performance NdFeB: Global consumption to grow at 17.2% CAGR (2023-2028), reaching 227,100 tons by 2028 amid high-end manufacturing adoption.

3. Long-Term (3-5 Years): Emerging Sectors Expand Horizons

Demand Projections: Robotics accounts for 8.7% of 2025 praseodymium-neodymium oxide demand; 2030 global rare earth demand to hit 300,000 tons. Global NdFeB demand to grow 13% CAGR (2024-2027), reaching 329,000 tons by 2027.

Core Drivers: Recycled rare earths, high-performance magnetic materials, and compliant overseas expansion will anchor long-term growth, addressing supply constraints and unlocking global markets.

In summary, policy adjustments, tech innovations, and booming downstream demand position the rare earth industry chain for a 3-year golden period. Leaders with resource dominance, core tech, and stable downstream partnerships are set to capture the biggest gains.